Theacrylonitrilemakampani adayambitsa njira yotulutsa mphamvu mu 2022, ndikuchulukirachulukira kopitilira 10% pachaka komanso kuchuluka kwamagetsi. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, tikuwona kuti mbali yofunikira si yabwino monga momwe iyenera kukhalira chifukwa cha mliriwu, ndipo makampaniwa akulamulidwa ndi downtrend, ndi mawanga owala ovuta kupeza.

Gwero la data: Goldlink

Msika wapakhomo wa acrylonitrile mu theka loyamba la 2022 udawonetsa kutsika koyamba ndikutsatiridwa ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya oscillation yomwe imayang'aniridwa. Kutengera msika wa East China monga chitsanzo, mtengo wapakati mu theka loyamba la 2022 unali pa RMB 11,455 / tani, pansi pa 21.29% pachaka, ndi mtengo wapamwamba wa RMB 13,100 / tani, zomwe zinachitika mu Januwale, ndi malo otsika kwambiri a RMB 10,800 / tani, zomwe zinachitika mu June.

Zinthu zazikulu zomwe zimakhudza msika ndizo.

I. Kuwonjezeka kwa zinthu. 2022 akadali chaka moyikirapo zoweta acrylonitrile kukula, kuika mu ntchito 2 waika zomera acrylonitrile ndi mphamvu okwana matani 390,000/chaka, kuphatikizapo Lihua Yi 260,000 matani/chaka ndi Tianchen Qixiang matani 130,000/chaka. Ngakhale kuchuluka kwa zotumiza kunja kudakwera 12.1% chaka ndi chaka kuyambira Januware mpaka Meyi, kupezeka ndi kufunikira kumangokulirakulirabe.

Chachiwiri, kubukanso kwa mliriwo kunachititsa kuti katundu wafakitale achuluke. Chiyambireni 2022 nthawi zonse zakhala zikuchulukirachulukira, mabizinesi ndi zowerengera za anthu zidachulukirachulukira pambuyo pa kufalikira komwe kudatsegulidwa kumapeto kwa kotala yoyamba, zida ku East China ndi Shandong zidayimitsidwa, komanso panalinso gawo lalikulu la kutsika kwapansi ndi kutseka, pambuyo pakufowoka kwa kufunikira, kutsika kwamitengo kwakhala kukukulirakulira.

Chachitatu, kukula kwamakampani akumunsi kumafunikira ndi kochepa. 150,000 matani/chaka latsopano LG Huizhou mbewu anawonjezera kuti ABS mu theka loyamba la 2022, ntchito matani 37,500/chaka cha zopangira acrylonitrile, kotero kukula kwa mphamvu kumtunda ndi zosakwana kukula kwa zopangira, kotero kutsegula avareji wa acrylonitrile zomera mu theka loyamba la 80% zogulitsa zimasonyeza kupsyinjika kwa zomera chaka.

Mu theka lachiwiri la 2022, msika wa acrylonitrile waku China upitilizabe kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono, ndipo malo osinthika onse ndi ochepa. Kuonjezera apo, mphamvu yatsopano yopangira acrylonitrile inakula kwambiri mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimaperekedwa kungapitirire kukwera. Komabe, kutsika kwa ABS kokha kumayembekezeredwa kukhala ndi zipangizo zatsopano zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito, zofunikira zonse ndizochepa, pansi pa kusagwirizana pakati pa kuperekera ndi kufunidwa, acrylonitrile kupereka ndi zotsutsana za zofuna zidzapitirira kuwonjezeka, pamene kutsegulidwa kwa fakitale kulinso kovuta kupititsa patsogolo, mabizinesi akuluakulu amatha kugula miyeso yolakwika. Popeza kuti acrylonitrile nthawi zambiri imakhala pansi pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, m'pofunikabe kulabadira kachitidwe ka propylene yaiwisi. Mitengo yakale ya fakitale (mitengo ya msika) ikuyembekezeka kukhala pakati pa RMB 10,000-12,000 / mt m'madera akuluakulu, ndipo kukwera kwakukulu mwinamwake kumachitika mu August.

Msika wa acrylonitrile waku China mu theka lachiwiri la 2022, feedstock propylene ndiye chinthu chachikulu chomwe chimalimbikitsa kusinthasintha kwamitengo. Popeza kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zopangira mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ndikumangidwiratu, n'zovuta kukhala ndi mwayi wochuluka wamtengo wapatali mu theka lachiwiri. Choncho, mtengo wa zopangira propylene adzakhala chinthu chofunika kudziwa mtengo wa acrylonitrile. Ngati propylene ikhala pafupi ndi RMB 8,000 / mt, zidzakhala zovuta kuti acrylonitrile apitirize kugwa. Komabe, ngati mtengo wa propylene ukupitirirabe kugwa, mtengo wa acrylonitrile udzakhalabe ndi mwayi wochepa chifukwa cha kupanikizika kwapamwamba.

Kuchokera ku 2022 mpaka 2023, China idzawonjezera matani 1.38 miliyoni / chaka cha zomera za acrylonitrile, ndipo ambiri mwa iwo akuyenga ndi zipangizo zothandizira mankhwala ophatikizika, zomwe zingatheke kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito. Komabe, kunsi kwa mtsinje kokha ABS ikukula mwachangu, monga ma acrylics ndi acrylamide ali mumkhalidwe wofunda, zomwe zingapangitse kuti pakhale kuchulukirachulukira. Zikuyembekezeka kuti m'zaka zitatu zikubwerazi, ndikukula kwa mphamvu ya acrylonitrile, phindu lamakampani likuchepa, ndipo zina mwazokhazikitsidwa zatsopano zikukumana ndi kuthekera kwa kuchedwa ndi kusungitsa.

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