Pakadali pano, msika waku China wamankhwala ukukulira paliponse.M'miyezi 10 yapitayi, mankhwala ambiri ku China awonetsa kuchepa kwakukulu.Mankhwala ena atsika ndi 60%, pomwe mankhwala ambiri atsika ndi 30%.Mankhwala ambiri atsika kwambiri m'chaka chathachi, pamene mankhwala ochepa atsika kwambiri m'zaka 10 zapitazi.Titha kunena kuti zomwe zachitika posachedwa pamsika wamankhwala waku China zakhala zodetsa nkhawa.
Malinga ndi kuwunika, zifukwa zazikulu zakutsika kwamphamvu kwamankhwala mchaka chatha ndi izi:
1. Kuchepa kwa msika wa ogula, woimiridwa ndi United States, kwakhudza kwambiri kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala padziko lonse lapansi.
Malinga ndi bungwe la Agence France Presse, chiwerengero cha ogula ku United States chinatsika ndi miyezi 9 m'gawo loyamba, ndipo mabanja ambiri amayembekezera kuti chuma chidzapitirirabe kuwonongeka.Kutsika kwa chidziwitso cha ogula nthawi zambiri kumatanthauza kuti nkhawa zakugwa kwachuma zikuchulukirachulukira, ndipo mabanja ambiri akuchepetsa ndalama zomwe amawononga pokonzekera kusokonekera kwachuma m'tsogolomu.
Chifukwa chachikulu cha kuchepa kwa chidziwitso cha ogula ku United States ndi kuchepa kwa ndalama zogulira nyumba.Izi zikutanthauza kuti, mtengo wa malo ogulitsa nyumba ku United States ndiwotsika kale kuposa kuchuluka kwa ngongole zanyumba, ndipo malo ogulitsa nyumba akhala osakhazikika.Kwa anthu amenewa, amamangirira mikanda yawo ndikupitiriza kubweza ngongole zawo, kapena kusiya malo awo enieni kuti asiye kubweza ngongole zawo, zomwe zimatchedwa kuti foreclosure.Ofuna ambiri amasankha kumangitsa malamba kuti apitirize kubweza ngongole, zomwe zimapondereza msika wa ogula.
United States ndiye msika waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wa ogula.Mu 2022, ndalama zonse zaku US zinali $22.94 thililiyoni, zomwe zidali zazikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi.Anthu aku America amapeza ndalama pafupifupi $50000 pachaka komanso ogulitsa padziko lonse lapansi pafupifupi $5.7 thililiyoni.Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kwa msika wa ogula ku US kwakhudza kwambiri kuchepa kwa mankhwala ndi mankhwala, makamaka pa mankhwala omwe amatumizidwa kuchokera ku China kupita ku United States.
2. Kuvuta kwachuma komwe kudabwera chifukwa cha kutsika kwa msika wa ogula ku US kwachepetsa kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi.
Lipoti la World Bank la Global Economic Prospects lomwe latulutsa posachedwa lidatsitsa zoneneratu zakukula kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi mchaka cha 2023 kufika pa 1.7%, kutsika ndi 1.3% kuchokera pazomwe zanenedweratu mu June 2020 ndi gawo lachitatu lotsika kwambiri pazaka 30 zapitazi.Lipotilo likuwonetsa kuti chifukwa cha zinthu monga kukwera kwa inflation, kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja, kuchepa kwa ndalama, ndi mikangano ya geopolitical, kukula kwachuma padziko lonse kukucheperachepera kufika pamlingo woopsa pafupi ndi kuchepa.
Purezidenti wa Banki Yadziko Lonse Maguire adanena kuti chuma cha padziko lonse chikuyang'anizana ndi "vuto lalikulu lachitukuko" ndipo zolepheretsa kuti chitukuko cha dziko chipitirire.Pamene kukula kwachuma padziko lonse kukuchepa, kutsika kwa inflation ku United States kukuwonjezeka, ndipo mavuto a ngongole akuwonjezeka, zomwe zakhudza kwambiri msika wa ogula padziko lonse.
3. Kupezeka kwa mankhwala ku China kukukulirakulirabe, ndipo mankhwala ambiri amakumana ndi kutsutsana kwakukulu kofunikira.
Kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2022 mpaka pakati pa 2023, mapulojekiti akuluakulu angapo amankhwala ku China adakhazikitsidwa.Pofika kumapeto kwa Ogasiti 2022, Zhejiang Petrochemical inali itayamba kugwira ntchito matani 1.4 miliyoni a zomera za ethylene pachaka, komanso kuthandizira zomera zakumunsi za ethylene;Mu Seputembala 2022, Lianyungang Petrochemical Ethane Project idayamba kugwira ntchito ndikukhala ndi zida zapansi;Kumapeto kwa Disembala 2022, pulojekiti yophatikiza matani 16 miliyoni ya Shenghong Refining and Chemical idayamba kugwira ntchito, ndikuwonjezera mankhwala atsopano ambiri;Mu February 2023, chomera cha Hainan miliyoni cha matani a ethylene chinagwiritsidwa ntchito, ndipo pulojekiti yophatikizana yomwe imathandizira kumunsi inayikidwa;Kumapeto kwa 2022, chomera cha ethylene cha Shanghai Petrochemical chidzayamba kugwira ntchito.Mu Meyi 2023, polojekiti ya TDI ya Wanhua Chemical Group Fujian Industrial Park idzayamba kugwira ntchito.
M'chaka chathachi, China idayambitsa ntchito zazikuluzikulu zambiri zamankhwala, ndikuwonjezera msika wamankhwala ambiri.Pansi pa msika wamakono wa ogula, kukula kwa gawo logulitsira pamsika wamankhwala aku China kwathandiziranso kutsutsana kwazomwe zimafunikira pamsika.
Ponseponse, chifukwa chachikulu chakutsika kwamitengo kwamitengo yamankhwala kwanthawi yayitali ndikugwiritsa ntchito mwaulesi pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zadzetsa kutsika kwa kuchuluka kwa katundu wamankhwala aku China.Kuchokera pamalingaliro awa, zitha kuwonekanso kuti ngati kutumizidwa kunja kwa msika wazinthu zogulitsa kutsika, kutsutsana ndi zomwe amafuna pamsika wa ogula aku China kudzetsa kutsika kwamitengo yazinthu zama mankhwala apanyumba.Kutsika kwamitengo yamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi kwapangitsa kuti msika wamankhwala waku China ukhale wofooka, motero kutsika kwatsika.Chifukwa chake, mitengo yamitengo yamsika ndi chizindikiritso chazinthu zambiri zama mankhwala ku China zikadali zolephereka ndi msika wapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo makampani aku China amakakamizikabe ndi misika yakunja pankhaniyi.Chifukwa chake, kuti athetse kutsika kwapafupifupi kwa chaka chimodzi, kuphatikiza pakusintha momwe amaperekera, idaliranso kwambiri kuyambiranso kwachuma kwamisika yozungulira.