Polyethylene ili ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana yazogulitsa kutengera njira zama polymerization, kuchuluka kwa kulemera kwa maselo, komanso kuchuluka kwa nthambi.Mitundu yodziwika bwino imaphatikizapo polyethylene yapamwamba kwambiri (HDPE), polyethylene yotsika kwambiri (LDPE), ndi polyethylene yotsika kwambiri (LLDPE).
Polyethylene ndi yopanda fungo, yopanda poizoni, imamveka ngati sera, imakhala ndi kutentha kochepa kwambiri, kukhazikika kwa mankhwala, ndipo imatha kupirira kukokoloka kwa ma asidi ambiri ndi alkalis.Polyethylene akhoza kukonzedwa pogwiritsa ntchito jekeseni akamaumba, extrusion akamaumba, kuwomba akamaumba, ndi njira zina kupanga zinthu monga mafilimu, mapaipi, mawaya ndi zingwe, zotengera dzenje, ma CD matepi ndi zomangira, zingwe, maukonde nsomba, ndi ulusi wolukidwa.
Chuma cha padziko lonse chikuyembekezeka kutsika.Potsutsana ndi kukwera kwa inflation, kumwa kumakhala kofooka ndipo kufunikira kumachepetsedwa.Kuonjezera apo, Federal Reserve ikupitiriza kukweza chiwongoladzanja, ndondomeko ya ndalama ikukhazikika, ndipo mitengo yamtengo wapatali ikupanikizika.Kuphatikiza apo, mkangano wa Russia-Ukraine ukupitilirabe ndipo chiyembekezo sichinadziwikebe.Mtengo wamafuta osakanizidwa ndi wamphamvu, ndipo mtengo wazinthu za PE ukadali wokwera.M'zaka zaposachedwa, zinthu za PE zakhala zikuchulukirachulukira komanso kukulirakulira kwamphamvu yopanga, ndipo mabizinesi akutsika akuchedwa kutsata zomwe adalamula.Kusagwirizana kwazomwe zimafunidwa kwakhala imodzi mwamavuto akulu pakukula kwamakampani a PE pakadali pano.
Kusanthula ndi Kuneneratu kwa World Polyethylene Supply and Demand
Mphamvu yopanga polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi ikupitilira kukula.Mu 2022, dziko la polyethylene kupanga mphamvu kuposa matani miliyoni 140 pachaka, chaka ndi chaka chiwonjezeko cha 6.1%, ndi chaka ndi chaka chiwonjezeko cha 2.1% pakupanga.Avereji yogwira ntchito ya unityo inali 83.1%, kuchepa kwa 3.6 peresenti poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha.
Kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa Asia ndi gawo lalikulu kwambiri la mphamvu yopanga polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zimawerengera 30,6% ya mphamvu zonse zopanga polyethylene mu 2022, ndikutsatiridwa ndi North America ndi Middle East, zomwe zimawerengera 22.2% ndi 16.4% motsatana.
Pafupifupi 47% ya mphamvu zopanga polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi zimakhazikika m'mabizinesi khumi apamwamba omwe ali ndi mphamvu zopanga.Mu 2022, panali mabizinesi pafupifupi 200 opanga ma polyethylene padziko lapansi.ExxonMobil ndi bizinesi yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yopanga polyethylene, yomwe imawerengera pafupifupi 8.0% ya mphamvu zonse zopanga padziko lapansi.Dow ndi Sinopec ali pa nambala yachiwiri ndi yachitatu motsatana.
Mu 2021, kuchuluka kwa malonda apadziko lonse a polyethylene kunali madola 85.75 biliyoni a US, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 40,8%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa malonda kunali matani 57.77 miliyoni, kuchepa kwa chaka ndi 7.3%.Malinga ndi mtengo, mtengo wapakati wa polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi ndi 1484.4 madola aku US pa tani, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 51.9%.
China, United States, ndi Belgium ndi omwe amagulitsa kwambiri polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi, omwe amawerengera 34.6% ya zinthu zonse padziko lapansi;United States, Saudi Arabia, ndi Belgium ndi mayiko akuluakulu omwe amatumiza polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi, omwe amawerengera 32.7% yazinthu zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja.
Mphamvu yopangira polyethylene padziko lonse lapansi ipitiliza kukula mwachangu.M'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi, dziko lidzawonjezera matani oposa 12 miliyoni a polyethylene kupanga mphamvu pachaka, ndipo ntchito zimenezi makamaka Integrated mapulojekiti amapangidwa molumikizana ndi kumtunda ethylene zomera.Zikuyembekezeka kuti kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2024, kuchuluka kwapachaka kwa polyethylene kudzakhala 5.2%.
Mkhalidwe Wamakono ndi Kuneneratu kwa Polyethylene Supply and Demand ku China
Kuthekera kwa kupanga polyethylene yaku China ndikutulutsa kwakula nthawi imodzi.Mu 2022, mphamvu yaku China yopanga polyethylene idakwera ndi 11.2% pachaka ndipo kupanga kudakwera ndi 6.0% pachaka.Pofika kumapeto kwa 2022, ku China kuli mabizinesi pafupifupi 50 opanga polyethylene, ndipo mphamvu yatsopano yopangira mu 2022 imaphatikizapo magawo monga Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery, Lianyungang Petrochemical, ndi Zhejiang Petrochemical.
Tchati Chofananitsa cha Polyethylene Production ku China kuyambira 2021 mpaka 2023

Kuwonjezeka kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa polyethylene kumakhala kochepa, ndipo kudzidalira kumapitiriza kukula.Mu 2022, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa polyethylene ku China kunakwera ndi 0,1% pachaka, ndipo kudzidalira kunakwera ndi 3.7 peresenti poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha.
Kuchuluka kwa polyethylene ku China kumatsika chaka ndi chaka, pomwe kuchuluka kwa zotumiza kunja kumawonjezeka chaka ndi chaka.Mu 2022, kuchuluka kwa polyethylene ku China kudatsika ndi 7.7% pachaka;Kutumiza kunja kudakwera ndi 41.5%.China imakhalabe yogulitsa kunja kwa polyethylene.Malonda a ku China obwera ndi polyethylene makamaka amadalira malonda wamba, omwe amawerengera 82.2% ya kuchuluka kwazinthu zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja;Chotsatira ndi malonda ogulitsa kunja, omwe amawerengera 9.3%.Zogulitsa kunja makamaka zimachokera kumayiko kapena zigawo monga Saudi Arabia, Iran, ndi United Arab Emirates, zomwe zimatengera pafupifupi 49.9% yazogulitsa zonse.
Polyethylene imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri ku China, ndipo filimuyi imawerengera theka la chiwerengero chonse.Mu 2022, filimu yopyapyala imakhalabe gawo lalikulu kwambiri la polyethylene ku China, ndikutsatiridwa ndi jekeseni, mbiri ya chitoliro, dzenje ndi zina.
China polyethylene akadali mu siteji ya kukula mofulumira.Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira, China ikukonzekera kuwonjezera ma seti 15 a zomera za polyethylene isanafike 2024, ndi mphamvu zowonjezera zopangira matani oposa 8 miliyoni pachaka.
2023 PE Domestic Domestic New Chipangizo Chopanga Ndondomeko

Pofika Meyi 2023, mphamvu zonse zopanga zopanga zapakhomo za PE zafika matani 30.61 miliyoni.Pankhani yakukulitsidwa kwa PE mu 2023, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti mphamvu yopangira ikhale matani 3.75 miliyoni pachaka.Panopa, Guangdong Petrochemical, Hainan Refining ndi Chemical, ndi Shandong Jinhai Chemical ayamba kugwira ntchito, ndi mphamvu yokwanira yopanga matani 2.2 miliyoni.Zimaphatikizapo kachipangizo kokwanira kachulukidwe ka matani 1.1 miliyoni ndi chipangizo cha HDPE cha matani 1.1 miliyoni, pomwe chipangizo cha LDPE sichinayambe kugwira ntchito m'chakachi.Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chotsatira, pali matani 1.55 miliyoni / chaka cha mapulani atsopano opangira zida, kuphatikizapo matani 1.25 miliyoni a zida za HDPE ndi matani 300000 a LLDPE.Zikuyembekezeka kuti mphamvu zonse zaku China zidzafika matani 32.16 miliyoni pofika 2023.
Pakalipano, pali kutsutsana kwakukulu pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa PE ku China, ndi mphamvu yochuluka yopangira magawo atsopano opangira mtsogolo.Komabe, makampani opanga zinthu zapansi akuyang'anizana ndi zovuta zamitengo yamtengo wapatali, malonda otsika, ndi kuvutika kuonjezera mitengo kumapeto kwa malonda;Kutsika kwa ndalama zogwirira ntchito komanso kukwera mtengo kwa ntchito kwapangitsa kuti mabizinesi aziyenda movutikira, ndipo m'zaka zaposachedwa, chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali, ndondomeko zochepetsera ndalama zakunja zawonjezera chiopsezo cha kugwa kwachuma, ndipo kufunikira kofooka kwadzetsa kuchepa. m'maoda amalonda akunja azinthu.Mabizinesi akutsika, monga zinthu za PE, ali munthawi yamavuto am'mafakitale chifukwa cha kusakwanira komanso kufunikira kwa zinthu.Kumbali imodzi, akuyenera kulabadira zofuna zachikhalidwe, pomwe akupanga zofunikira zatsopano ndikupeza njira zotumizira kunja
Kuchokera kugawika kwa kutsika kwa mtsinje wa PE ku China, gawo lalikulu kwambiri la mowa ndi filimu, ndikutsatiridwa ndi magulu akuluakulu a mankhwala monga jekeseni, chitoliro, dzenje, kujambula kwa waya, chingwe, metallocene, zokutira, etc. Pakuti makampani opanga mafilimu, chodziwika bwino ndi filimu yaulimi, filimu ya mafakitale, ndi filimu yonyamula katundu.Komabe, m'zaka zaposachedwa, kufunikira kwazinthu zamakanema apulasitiki otayika kwasinthidwa pang'onopang'ono ndi kutchuka kwa mapulasitiki owonongeka chifukwa cha malamulo ochepa apulasitiki.Kuonjezera apo, makampani opanga mafilimu omwe amanyamula nawonso ali m'nthawi ya kusintha kwapangidwe, ndipo vuto la kuchuluka kwa zinthu zotsika mtengo likadali lalikulu.
Kumangira jakisoni, chitoliro, mazenje ndi mafakitale ena amagwirizana kwambiri ndi zosowa zamakina ndi moyo watsiku ndi tsiku.M'zaka zaposachedwa, chifukwa cha zinthu monga malingaliro olakwika a ogula kuchokera kwa anthu okhalamo, chitukuko cha makampani opanga zinthu chakumana ndi zopinga zina zakukula, ndipo kutsatira pang'ono kwaposachedwa pamalamulo otumiza kunja kwachititsanso kuti pakhale kuchepa kwa kukula kwa msika. m'masiku ochepa patsogolo.
Ndi mfundo ziti zakukula kwa PE yapakhomo mtsogolomo
M'malo mwake, pa 20 National Congress kumapeto kwa 2022, njira zosiyanasiyana zaperekedwa kuti zilimbikitse kufunikira kwapakhomo, ndi cholinga chotsegula kufalikira kwamkati ku China.Kuphatikiza apo, zanenedwa kuti kuchuluka kwa mayendedwe akumatauni komanso kuchuluka kwa kupanga kudzabweretsa kulimbikitsa kwa zinthu za PE kuchokera pakukweza kufalikira kwamkati.Kuphatikiza apo, kupumula kwathunthu kwaulamuliro, kuyambiranso kwachuma, komanso kukwera koyembekezeka kwa kufalikira kwa mkati kumaperekanso zitsimikizo za kubwezeretsedwa kwamtsogolo kwa zofuna zapakhomo.
Kukweza kwa ogula kwapangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kokulirapo, komwe kuli ndi zofunika kwambiri zamapulasitiki m'magawo monga magalimoto, nyumba zanzeru, zamagetsi, ndi mayendedwe anjanji.Zida zapamwamba, zogwira ntchito kwambiri, komanso zoteteza chilengedwe zakhala zosankha zomwe amakonda.Zomwe zikukulirakulira zomwe zidzafunike m'tsogolo zili makamaka m'magawo anayi, kuphatikiza kukula kwa ma phukusi pamakampani operekera zinthu mwachangu, makanema onyamula omwe amayendetsedwa ndi malonda a e-commerce, komanso kukula kwa magalimoto amagetsi atsopano, zida, komanso kufunikira kwachipatala.Pali malo omwe angakulire kufunikira kwa PE.
Pankhani ya zofuna zakunja, pali zinthu zambiri zosatsimikizika, monga ubale wa China US, Federal Reserve policy, Russia Ukraine nkhondo, geopolitical policy factor, etc. Pakalipano, malonda akunja aku China akufunika pazinthu zapulasitiki akadali pakupanga otsika. mankhwala.M'munda wa mankhwala mkulu-mapeto, ukatswiri ambiri ndi luso akadali mwamphamvu unachitikira m'manja mwa mabizinezi akunja, ndi blockade luso la mankhwala apamwamba ndi woopsa, Choncho, ndi kuthekera yojambula mfundo yotulukira tsogolo mankhwala China. kutumiza kunja, komwe mwayi ndi zovuta zimakhalapo.Mabizinesi apakhomo akukumanabe ndi luso laukadaulo komanso chitukuko.